Betting Preview: Everton v QPR – Monday Dec 15

Goals have been at something of a premium for Everton so far this season, but that problem could be solved this weekend, as opponents QPR have had trouble conceding them.

Everton have hit the target 24 times in 15 games and let in one less to have a goal difference of plus one, whereas QPR have netted 16 and conceded 27 for a goal difference of minus 11.

When you combine these statistics, it is easy to see three goals or more being scored when the teams meet at Goodison Park in the latest round of Premier League fixtures.

Everton manager Roberto Martinez is still looking for a marksman who can score with any sort of consistency, but in Belgian international Romelu Lukaku he has a player with six Premier League goals to his credit this season.

Meanwhile, QPR boss Harry Redknapp has seen his struggling side improve of late, with the London club climbing out of the danger zone following the 2-0 defeat of relegation rivals Burnley last time out.

Charlie Austin has scored eight times in the Premier League this season, but he misses out against Everton through suspension.

Redknapp does not appear too concerned by his side’s defending, though, if speculation over his January transfer targets is anything to go by.

He has been linked with moves for former Spurs strikers Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe, who have been plying their trade in the Major Soccer League in the United States.

When you hit a bad series – Take a break

“When we take a break our minds become refreshed and more focused on what we have to do.”

Some times in life it seems like we can’t do anything right no matter how hard we try. Unfortunately that can be a problem in itself, trying too hard can be as bad as not trying at all. The human mind can only learn so much information at any one time.

You will have noticed some times information can seem difficult to absorb, and your attention starts to wonder from the job in hand onto other things. This is a perfectly natural human trait; our brains weren’t designed to solely concentrate on one thing all the time.

When it does happen to you don’t worry, there are many possible reasons to name a few: lack of enthusiasm, tiredness, or even the need to take a break. My advice to you as a punter is, “Don’t pursue what you are doing if you feel you lack the true concentration needed to focus and make the right decisions.”

You will come across days when there are no bets to be had according to your chosen systems criteria. Don’t under any circumstances try to find bets that aren’t there through sheer frustration and impatience, you will lose money. Take a break, have a day off, spend some of those winnings, just stay away from racing. Especially if you have hit a slight losing run, which as you know is an inevitable part of racing.

You need to stay strong and clear your mind for the job ahead, which is to make consistent profit using the rules outlined in your chosen betting plan.

Never consider analysing races if you feel you don’t have time to do it properly. Your approach must always be careful, methodical and realistic and always make sure you have access to all the relevant facts. Never base your betting decisions around hunches, guesswork or media hype.

6-1 Chelsea expected to lead the way in Europe

MANCHESTER CITY celebrated their dramatic qualification for the knockout stages of the Champ­ions League on Wednesday but bookmakers expect Chelsea to lead the Premier League charge in Europe this season.

The Blues are 6-1 to win the trophy with City 12-1 and Arsenal, who face a tough set of possible last-16 opponents in Monday’s draw, out to 33-1.

Chelsea, the only group winners among the trio, are 8-11 favourites to be the furthest-progressing English team but the prospects look bleaker for their London rivals Arsenal.

Boylesports are betting on the stage of elimination for each of the Premier League teams and the Gunners are just 8-13 to crash out in the last 16.

City are 6-5 to be eliminated in the round of 16 while Chelsea are 7-2 to suffer a repeat of last season’s semi-final exit.

Bayern Munich are general 3-1 favourites for the trophy, just ahead of Real Madrid at 10-3 and 5-1 chances Barcelona. PSG and Atletico Madrid are 20-1 shots.

Shakhtar Donetsk striker Luiz Adriano leads the race for the Golden Boot on nine goals but Lionel Messi, who is just one behind, is the 5-4 favourite.

Adriano, whose side are 250-1 outsiders for the tournament alongside Basel, is a 3-1 shot while layers are showing plenty of respect to Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored five group-stage goals and is 4-1 for the Golden Boot.

Possible last-16 Champions League opponents (draw takes place at 11am on Monday) – Arsenal: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Porto, Monaco; Chelsea: Juventus, Basel, PSG, Bayer Leverkusen, Shakhtar Donetsk; Manchester City: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Porto, Monaco.

5 NBA Teams With the Best Odds to Win the 2015 Championship

The best thing that LeBron’s move to the Cavs has given fans of NBA basketball? The probable end of the micro dynasty of the Miami Heat — if Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade can repeat after duct taping their victory raft together with Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts, it’ll be impressive — and the newly wide open East almost certainly guarantees that we’ll see a new team coming out of at least once conference. Vegas, as always, is listening, and they’ve put down post-Decision 2.0 odds for the NBA teams most likely to go all the way. All odds courtesy of Bovada.

5. Los Angeles Clippers — 8-to-one

Embroiled in an ownership controversy that doesn’t look to be ending very quickly or very cleanly (the trial between owners Donald and Shelly Sterling, who are in court to determine, essentially, whether or not the team has actually been sold), the Clippers will still have premier players at the point and at the power forward spots.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder — 7-to-one

Despite the fact that they’ve yet to return to the Finals after sending James Harden out for a soda and some potato chips, a move that looks more and more absurd with each bump to the salary cap, the Oklahoma City Thunder still feature the reigning NBA MVP, Kevin Durant, and the most explosive point guard in the game. They also have Serge Ibaka, who can singlehandedly swing a series back in OKC’s favor.

3. Chicago Bulls — 11-to-two

Derrick Rose, who has played in under 50 NBA games over the last three seasons, is still just a year and a half older than Damian Lillard, and a Chicago team featuring a healthy Rose plus the twin towers of Pau Gasol and Defensive player of the year Joakim Noah could make a lot of noise in the newly level East.

2. San Antonio Spurs — 7-to-two

The defending champions have to get the nod here, and the fact that they’ve brought back the whole team to defend their title — something that’s a little rarer than you might think in the modern NBA landscape — has to help with their chances, even if everyone is saying “this is the year the Spur’s window is closed” by February.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 5-to-two

Wherever LeBron goes, rings will follow. Or, more cynically, it seems that Vegas is attempting to cash in on Cleveland fans’ newfound enthusiasm for the return of the King, making an enticing offer to rope them into betting on a roster that even LeBron says might not be ready. On the other hand, they have James, Kyrie, and Maple Jordan himself, Andrew Wiggins.

Goals Scored Betting Strategies

Choosing your markets

These sorts of betting types often come with a wide range of markets. In this case they will be in the form of the amount of goals the spread is set upon. The most common will be 1.5, 2.5 and even 3.5 with each market offering up more risk than the other; the general trend will be the odds increase the more goals you are looking to bet over. With each game it’s important to select the market that will yield the greatest amount of profit, i.e. which game will comfortably hit their game quota.

League and game selection

Game selection is without doubt the most important part of this whole betting market. When betting on the over a certain amount of goals, you obviously want games that are going to be high scoring. A good way to do this is by checking for teams that are good at going forward, but have a poor defence. Remember, you don’t need the goals to be spread out between the teams; an 8-0 thrashing is just as good as 4-4 classic!

As a by-product of this, it’s always going to be beneficial to find leagues that are high scoring. There are tons of sites that provide information on leagues from around the world and how many goals per game they average. This sort of information is exactly what we need to start narrowing our decisions down. Don’t just look at the major leagues as well, look at smaller nations that will have high goals per game ratios. Places such as Japan and Holland are two countries that notoriously have high scoring games throughout the season and should definitely be targeted.

Betting on Goals Scored (Over)

Online betting and in-play betting has revolutionised the way that football fans can add more excitement to a game and it has provided a whole new way to make money from sport. Whether your interest is as a fan of the game or as someone who wants to make money, having new ways to bet is of interest and the betting on goals scored (over) option is a great one for football fans.

Firstly, football is all about goals and this is what the majority of fans want to see. A team can play tremendously well but unless they score, they will not be able to win the game. This is why looking at goals is a great way to properly engage with the game and to keep an interest in the game until the final whistle.

The concept for this style of bet is simple

The concept on betting on goals scored (over) is simple and even if you are not a big football fan, it is simple enough to understand. What you are betting on here is the total number of goals scored in the game. It doesn’t matter if one team scores all of the goals or if both teams get on the score sheet. If Manchester United defeated Manchester City by 3 goals to 1, there would be 4 goals in total. Similarly, if Manchester United and Manchester City drew 2-2, there would be 4 goals in the game. It is important to remember that the actual outcome of the game isn’t relevant when betting on goals scored bets, only the number of goals.

What you will find when looking at betting on goals scored (over) options is that the bet will revolve around a half number and as you cannot get half a goal in football, all of these bets will either be won or lost. An example would be a betting site offering players odds of the amount of goals scored being over 1.5.

If you take this bet and think that there will be more than 1.5 goals scored in the game, you need there to be two goals scored. It doesn’t matter which team scores the goals but there needs to be 2 goals scored. Examples of the outcome of this bet in relation to certain scores are:

Manchester United 0 v Manchester City 0. With this score, 0 goals have been scored and the bet is lost.

Manchester United 0 v Manchester City 1. With this score, 1 goal has been scored and the bet is lost

Manchester United 1 v Manchester City 1. With this score, 2 goals have been scored and the bet is won.

Any winning score line of 2-0, 2-1 or any greater number of goals for either team will win an over 1.5 goals bet and a draw of any score from 1-1 upwards will win an over 1.5 goals bet.

This principle is the exact same, regardless of the bet that has been offered, many bookmakers will offer odds of goals scored over 2.5 goals or goals scored over 3.5 goals. You will also find that in-play bets for games where there have already been a lot of goals scored will provide goals scored over bets of a higher value, but it will always end in a .5.

This style of football bet is popular, it can provide great returns and it ensures that football fans can have an interest in the game right up to the final whistle.

Emotion is the key for failure in sports betting

“Learn how psychology and emotion can undermine your success.”

Learning to control the way you think and react to situations that arise in your betting patterns will lead to consistent success. If you stick to a proven plan you won’t start to question your judgment or ability. Have faith in your own opinion and be wary of hype and rumours.

What I do if I hit a losing run is look back through my past results and see clearly that I have profited over time by sticking to my proven methods that I know work. Any losing run that I do encounter will soon pass and profit will be just around the corner.

Races should be viewed as singular events, and you should learn to understand that one race has no connection to any other race; they are not related in any way at all. Most punters bet with fear and lack of understanding of this fact.

This is one of the many reasons why they lose most of the time; not having the patience to wait for a suitable race, and just jumping in irrespective of the form or actual realistic chances of winning. These guys just want to win the money back they lost in the first race and so the losing cycle continues. Basically this is what’s known as chasing.

Psychologically these punters are unsound because they lose most of the time. Subconsciously their minds are programmed to accept this and the bookies clean up. As discussed before in this report in order to be successful you need to have a very positive mindset, which means that you should expect to win more than you lose, which is something you will only achieve when using a proven system.

Too much emotion involved in your betting decisions will be your undoing and drastically affect your confidence. This in turn will lead to fear and bad habits creeping back into your betting patterns; such as chopping and changing methods that has been proven to work long-term. You must understand that systems and strategies need to be monitored over time in order to assess whether they are successful or not.

It’s no good trying a system for a week or two then changing the rules around when you hit a few bad results. If you do follow this practice it will lead to erratic up and down results and long-term losses.

So to summarize – Emotive gambling should be avoided at all times. Learning to control your emotions is one of the main ingredients to betting profitably. Once you do so, you will look back at your previous bad betting habits and it will become very clear why you lost most of the time – Lack of Emotional Discipline.

Staking plans and betting banks – laying

The following single stakes plan is safe to use when laying horses.

When laying horses you need a different type of staking plan which calculates a maximum liability for each bet based on value. It’s no use laying horses at ridiculously big odds, because when one does eventually win you will find yourself needing too many bets to break even again.

So based on experience I would advise you never lay a horse above the maximum decimal odds of 4.7. Preferably lower in most instances.

Staking plan 1 for total beginners

You decide on a betting bank of £200. If divide that by 100 then one point would be £2. So let’s say you’ve carefully narrowed down your selections to one favourite that you believe has the least chance of winning. You should then place a £2 lay bet on it.

Example 1 All your lay bets are successful

DAY 1: You lay the favourite at 2.87 (15/8) for £2, if the horse loses you win £1.90: That’s the stake returned minus your maximum 5% commission. If the horse won you would pay out £3.74 with no commission to pay.

DAY 2: You lay the favourite at 3 (2/1) for £2, if the horse loses you win £1.90. If the horse won you would pay out £4.

DAY 3: You lay the favourite at 3.25 (9/4) for £2, if the horse loses you win £1.90. If the horse won you would pay out £4.50.

DAY 4: You lay the favourite at 3.5 (5/2) for £2, if the horse loses you win £1.90. If the horse won you would pay out £5.

DAY 5: You lay the favourite at 3.75 (11/4) for £2, if the horse loses you win £1.90. If the horse won you would pay out £5.50.

DAY 6: Saturdays are optional but can be a great profit-boosting day as usually you will find a least two horses to lay: If you layed two favourites both for £2 – one at 4 (3/1) and the other at 2.75 (7/4) you would win £3.80 if both lost. If the 2.75 (7/4) favourite horse won you would pay out £3.40; if the 4.0 (3/1) favourite won you would pay out £5.90.

On Saturdays there can be lots of races to look at and we don’t want to get bogged down studying too much form, so we stick to selecting favourites from one particular race coursee. It can be rewarding and boost the week’s overall profits. The racing is on the better grade courses, with more prize money on offer so the races tend to be pretty competitive making it ideal lay territory. Often you will be able find at least two good lay bets, in the end it’s entirely your own decision.

DAY 7: No lay: On Sundays there is a limited amount of information for each race on the R.P. web site. It is not really wise to bet without being aware of all the facts.

As you can clearly see if you do lose the odd bet you are always just one or two bets from being back in profit as long as you don’t go over on the 4.7 maximum. If you lay a drifter earlier in the day it is often possible to get even better odds so your liability is considerably less than if you laid just before the start of a race.

Staking plan 2 is the same as above, but increase the stake size according to the size of your betting bank.

The key to making long-term profit is make sure you use a proven system and only lay one horse a day, always stick to the staking plan no matter what. You will be able to increase your stake size in no time at all. If you do prefer to use a 50 point betting bank when your confidence has grown that’s fine. The 100 point bank is designed to give you plenty of leverage at the start.

How to calculate Poisson Distribution for soccer betting

Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, can provide a method for calculating the likely number of goals that will be scored in a soccer match. Bettors will find this simple method of how to calculate the likely outcome of a soccer match using Poisson Distribution very useful.

Poisson Distribution explained

Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes. For example, Chelsea might average 1.7 goals per game. Entering this information into a Poisson formula would show that this average equates to Chelsea scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

How to calculate soccer outcomes with Poisson Distribution

Before we can use Poisson to calculate the likely outcome of a match, we need to calculate the average number of goals each team is likely to score in that match. This can be calculated determining an “Attack” and “Defence Strength” for each team and comparing them.

Selecting a representative data range is vital when calculating Attack and Defence strengths – too long and the data will not be relevant for the teams current strength, while too short may allow outliers to skew the data. For this analysis we’re using the 38 games played by each team in the 2013/14 EPL season.

Calculating Attack and Defence strengths

Calculate the average goals scored at home and away

The first step in calculating Attack and Defence strengths based upon last season’s results is to determine the average number of goals scored per team, per home game, and per away games.

Calculate this by taking the total number of goals scored last season and dividing it by the number of games played:

Season Goals Scored at Home / Number of Games (in season)

Season Goals Scored Away / Number of Games (in season)

In 2013/14, that was 598/380 at home and 454/380 away, equalling an average of 1.574 goals per game at home and 1.195 away.

Average number of goals scored at home: 1.574
Average number of goals scored away from home: 1.195

The difference from the above average is what constitutes a team’s “Attack Strength”.

We’ll also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes):

Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.195
Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.574

We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Manchester United and Swansea City for their match on August 16th, 2014.

Monaco vs Zenit Prediction and Betting Tips

Monaco vs Zenit Prediction and Tips. Great match between Monaco and Zenit. Both teams have chance to qualify for the next stage of the Champions League and it will be very good match. But away team if want to qualify must win in this match. We expect real fight for points in France. Monaco play very strong football and they played in almost all matches without many goals. On the other side Zenit also play very strong in defense line but they sometimes can score lots of goals. In this match they need scoring for sure.

They will start very offensively and Monaco will have chance over counter attack. Their first match in Russia they played without goals. Monaco played under 2.5 goals scored in eight of their last nine matches in the Champions League. Have a nice betting day and enjoy in great football. Good luck.

Missing players:

Monaco must play on match against Zenit without only two missing players. Layvin Kurzawa is injured and he will not play for sure. Layvin Kurzawa is suspended and he also can not help their team in this very important match. Two players are not fully fit but they will start for sure because it will be very important match for all players.

On the other side Zenit also has almost all players ready for this match. Only one players missed for them on this match. It is Alexander Kerzhakov who is injured and can not play. All other players are fully fit and believe that they can win and qualify for the next stage.

Possible starting lineups:

Monaco: Subasic; Raggi, Abdennour, Toulalan, Fabinho; Moutinho, Bakayoko; Ferreira-Carrasco, Berbatov, Silva; Martial

Zenit: Lodygin; Anyukov, Garay, Lombaerts, Criscito; Faizulin, Garcia, Hulk, Witsel, Danny; Rondon

Monaco vs Zenit. Prediction and betting tips.

Both teams have chances for next stage and it will be very important match. Zenit must play while Monaco would be satisfied with draw. We expect real fight for points. Monaco will play very defensively while Zenit will start very offensively. We expect great football. Also we believe that Monaco will not lost this match. So our betting tip and prediction for match Monaco vs Zenit Tip: Under 2.5 goals.